Fork in the Road and the Vacuum

Mid-March 2013 turning out to be crucial month for future of this country. Wharton School of Business demonstrated to the world how NOT to “manage” any event, forget a big corporation. India Today group held its Leadership Conclave on “reclaiming democracy”, Students of SRCC college hosted Narendra Modi as their chief speaker, while Manmohan Singh declining the SRCC invite, Rahul Gandhi declined all of the invites – Wharton, SRCC, and India Today Conclave. And, finally Nitish Kumar came demanding ‘Special Status’ for Bihar through his Rally at Ramlila Maidan.

While one exptects that contrasting/polarizing ideas for future of India would emerge from BJP and Congress, fascinatingly, these are coming from within current NDA. And NDA alone!

Narendra Modi is listing un-ending series of examples where adversities were turned into opportunities through innovative governance; while Nitish is looking to establish his credentials by re-emphasizing the old failed model of demanding assistance, and hand-outs and appealing slogans.

While, in principle there is nothing wrong asking for help/assistance, but, creating and basing the ‘development model’  entirely on the dole should be cause of sreious concern. On the otherhand, UPA government, as we all know, is least bothered about anything except to complete its term and its ministers single mindedly focusing on counting Greens till the last day of tenure of this government.

Narendra Modi very assertively & persuasively putting forward the tried & tested conservative approach to Governance: “Minimum Government, Maximum Governance”, while Nitish is NOT able to outline any clear philosophy. No one really know, if he is for market friendly policies, or hard-core state expenditure/control driven model.  His demand of “Special Status” for Bihar is muddying the water further. He has even failed to list out 3 salient features  or priviledges of what “Special Status” would mean to people of Bihar.

So, looking at this broad slogan we can safely assume, that this idea of “Special Status” would fall on the lines of what Mandal Commission triggered “Social Justice” cry or "Reservations for Muslims". Politically the idea of Mandal Commission was goldmine for chanting top commanders of proponents. Laloo Yadav, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Ram Vilas Paswan made their career out of this. VP Singh was easily 'left on margins' though he too tried to reap the crop he sowed through Mandal. They further raised the pitch  one level up from merely "Job Reservation" to the new phrase “Social Justice” leaving the  masses - awaiting that Justice - high & dry. Kanshiram (Mayawati) were not in VP Singh camp, but they too were playing same political game. However, they were more audatious about their real aim of obtaining (snatching) political powers  from so called "Upper Caste exploiters". 

Though, the Mandal commission raised the hopes/aspirations of millions of Dalits/Backwards, there was no mechanism designed in it to deliver goods except, a Phrase: "Give them reservations upto 49% in the Government Jobs".  Results post implementation so far, are disastrous. The beneficiaries of Mandal commission remained only its "shrill Proponents": Lalu Prasad, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mayawati, and Paswan and targeted section of society remained what it was pre-Mandal era :"Backwards" & "Dalits". Today, all of these are now seen neck deep in Cesspool of Corruption, Loot, nepotism exploiting the same section of society whom they promised heavens.

 Interestingly, all such movements part-symbolic part-real: be it Mandal Commission, Sachchar Commission, and Religious Census, are aimed at generating same psychology of Victimhood among targeted sections.

No wonder, all Left of Center political parties find these kind of grandoise and hollow movements so appealing. This addresses two groups:

a) Sections of society desperately seeking alternatives, but shorn of real information on working/successful availabvle solutions.

b) Proponents of such ideas knowing well that they themselves would be BIGGEST beneficiaries of such "movements".

Nitish knows it well!

 Coming back to governance, so far Nitish has been not able to create major apparatus in Bihar which can attract and absorb/digest big investments.  No doubt, Law & order has improved, basic amenities are returning and is visible. Basic infrastructure too is now coming in, confidence among local entrepreneurs is returning. However, all these items are outcome of vanishing of Laloo's goons and jungle raaj.  Nitish should get credit for this. But main questions are: Where are bigger subjects like state level administration reforms, investment in modernization of State Machinery, agriculture & water conservation/distribution, managing river Kosi through intra-state Canal, local check-dams etc. Where is disaster Management Policy, learning from Kosi floods? Has he done something to change image of Bihar as “law-less frontier” of India? Has he initiated any policy on un-organized sector poor worker? So far we do NOT hear on these items at all. Even if there are policies, the implementation seems to be dismal or not-initiated.

Nitish spoke at length today March 17th "Adhikar Rally" at Ramlila Maidan. He is marinating this new slogan with new ingradients set by Narendra Modi's approach of "Development (Vikas), Progress, Growth". All he said was "All big industries moved out of Bihar.... Our per Capita Income has come down to 1/3rd of national average..., ..." Thousands who heard him should NOT have been merely subjected to these 'facts' on failures of state (Lalu Prasad Yadav's or Congress's or his own government). What they deserved was "what their leader is doing or has done to address these after 8 years in power" .  

Unfortunately, they were taken for a ride in same fashion as what Lalu Prasads, Mulayam Singh Yadavs, Paswans or Mayawatis did to them in  1990s on "Social Justice" cry.

Lack of funds is an understandable argument for inadequate coverage in government schemes, but given the experiences of other similar states, a Chief Minister can NOT cry foul after 8 years in office. Enough Revenue should have been generated for critical needs (critical big ticket items) of the state. UPA is NOT only hostile to Bihar. It is hostile to Gujarat, MP, CH, JH, PB etc. All these states are managing their finances well and are generating adequate revenues too for bigger items. 

Madhya Pradesh- a case in Point has come out of tag of BIMARU states without seeking any "Special Status" from center, (be it congress or BJP ruled) despite being ruled by Digvijay Singh, who openly champoioned himself on the lines of Lalu Prasad Model of "Government". (Minimum Governance, Maximum Moolah") :) Madhya Pradesh had also suffered political instability with 3 Chief Ministers in BJP's first innnings after 2003. From Uma Bharati, to disastrous Babulal Gaur to now successfull Shivraj Singh Chouhan, MP still came out of that insulting tag of BIMARU. Lot of lessons are available here for Nitish Kumar.

Nitish should also take cue from West Bengal, which is totally devastated by CPIM in its 34 year “rule”. Every institution is totally bankrupt after 34 years. No iota of Law & order. CM Mamata Banerjee, with her all impulsive style, is merely demanding tax holiday alone. She is NOT raising storm over “special status”. UPA government has NOT even granted that demand, forget about expecting ‘additional’ special funds!

Biharis in general are regarded as people of hard working brilliant minds in India. There is no dearth of Experts, Doers, Thinkers, and Entrepreneurs who can formulate workable self-sufficient governing model which can lift Bihar out of its miseries with requisite basic support from Central government.

Currently in his advisors, we only see NK Singh (for Governance & Vision) & Shivanand Tiwari (on Political choices). That does raise serious concerns.

Overall, it’s all about ideology and mindset in which leaders are groomed, that determine their choices and priorities and stand/actions for major decisions.

One heartening aspect of the recently concluded Narendra Modi speech in the India-Today conclave is that his idea of India governed through innovative and honest intentions utilizing resources, minds/talents and helping hands well within available means of the state, has become dominating narrative. More importantly this narrative is NOT challenged anymore. Earlier professional bashers used to oppose these ideas vehemently, but in this conclave his governance has been accepted (willingly or un-willingly) by all including the professional hate Narendra Modi group! Nitish can take cue from this too!

    

India once again finds itself at fork in the road. One take you to reliable, self-sustainable, disciplined model of growth, and contrasting this, the other take you back to 1970s & 90s model of sloganeering and false solutions.

Interestingly besides both of these two alternatives, on the THIRD Corner, there is stunning VACUUM!!! Congress camp, which represents nothing except entitlements and freebies is watching clueless but content with overflowing deep pockets!

Choosing & Becoming Prime Minister of India

We are finally within the striking range of having a name from BJP for PM Candidate. For majority of the people, it will be Narendra Modi given the open declaration of their choice by majority of the BJP cadres across length & breadth of the country. Not only BJP voters, but also the non-aligned common voters affirm the same in survey after survey carried out by various media houses.

However, belying my prior assessments, National Executive Council meet of BJP on first couple of days of March 2013, indicate that within central leadership of BJP the choice is NOT yet that obvious.

The talks of going for formation of NDA+ in order to be a winning alliance, creates enough doubts in the minds of cadres and shake their confidence levels. At this point of time, what BPP would need is assertive, definitive leadership with crystal clear vision.

At this point this leadership would be provided by Narendra Modi. Not because there is clamor for his name among cadre, but for sheer the determination with which he has dismantled biggest anti-BJP propaganda, political machinery successfully & managed to deliver what’s expected from a good Chief Minister. However, merely banking on swelling BJP cadres’ support would NOT get them the declaration they are looking for from central leadership.

Something more than swelling support from cadres would be required to reach that stage. And, that would be more assertive, visible strides by Modi himself towards the leadership. As they teach Leadership basics traits: “Leadership is never given on platter as a Gift, it is taken”; Narendra Modi has to take final strides to get what is expected of him as leader. Off-course, not through using authority of popularity, but, by building bigger alliance within BJP itself. He will have to build on the support expressed by Yashwant Sinha & other senior leaders and reach out to other influential leaders in every state. The bridges must be build with the second tier leaders of every state, if NOT with BJP CMs directly. Some of the work on this direction seem to be already done, however, that is not yet adequate.

He need more software/literature in social media, print media on following parameters which are dished out everytime in ‘preventing’ him from taking right position:

                a) Being polarizing is NOT negative.

                b) Wanting to be PM & assertive is also Positive and NOT negative.

                c) Being pro-industrialists is also Positive & NOT negative

                d) His story is NOT limited to Good Governance ONLY. It goes way beyond it venturing into socio-religious balance for happy society.

Polarizing Figure:

Polarization of Votes is first and MOST important aspect of Democracy. Hence there is NO need to be defensive on this point. Polarizing voting population on economic choices, social choices, political choices, and in some cases issues bordering on religious choices is Pre-requisite for providing choices to populace for right/preferred selection. Hence, there should NOT be any soft-peddling on this subject by his supporters.

In-fact, I love that he is extremely polarizing on all critical subjects that can make or break any nation with his forward looking progressive Vision laced with excellent track record, including handling post Godhra riots. I don’t see any reason for him to be silent on it too. But, I grant him that he can choose time of his own for this sensitive subject.

While all others provide you “We are all same/similar & hence does NOT matter whom you choose” for future is dangerous for society & nation. We need who can authoritatively & assertively says “here is I am, & totally different than others. And, look at my track record. Make up your minds”!!

There is huge sea of difference between “Polarizing voters” for choices, & “Dividing voters for gains”. Contrasting the two with example of Muslim reservation ploy, or visits to terrorists’ homes of Congress during every election must be highlighted and putting forth idea of policies that work for all sections rather than “talking of one particular section” is the key!

In my opinion he should consider calibrating and engineering this message more effectively and efficiently.

A willing Leader to lead Country:

Another basic of leadership is “a Leader should be willing & must be seen as person with Desire to Lead”. There is NO shying away from expressing that “I can lead the country, and I want to”. In any democracy, the Leader has to be ambitious enough for himself/herself and thereby the Nation. Contradictions do NOT exist at-least in this area.

All attempts post independence have failed, when the leader was seen as “self-less”/ “Ambition-less” & delivered stellar results for society. JP Narayan was key example. Even, recently Anna Hazare too failed miserably. In politics, many non dynasty leaders from Congress can be listed in this category, who lived life on principles of Mahatma Gandhi but failed to provide alternative eco-system of political power beyond Dynasty. Even in Jan Sangh, later BJP there are names, who faded away because they projected themselves as ambitionless Party-Workers. Country/States could have benefitted from their competence had they asserted their existence and leadership.

Time has come for Narendra Modi to openly express assertively within party circles for saying “I want to be PM, because I can deliver and I want to deliver what Party can & yearning to.” There is no harm in competing with positive spirit and demanding what’s right for Nation, society, party, and self.

Pro Industrialist Image:

This tag is a hang-over from draconian Socialist regime that Indira Gandhi enforced on India during Emergency. Country need to shed all the pretentions of being ‘soft-socialist’ regime post 1991.

Today, Pro-Industrialist must be good thing and narrative must be built around this. Setting right environment, which encourages transparent regulations for entrepreneurship, trade and business must be done without feeling apologetic about it.

Current approach of keeping “apologetic face” while doing Profit centric business is Congress style of functioning, which encourages “under the table dealings” & channelize the fruits of industrialization to ‘few key people’ by preventing them trickling them to the bottom of pyramid. Congress calls this approach as “reforms with Human face”! 

I must say, Narendra Modi has done tremendous job on this front, however, setting narrative positively on this area is still work to be done.

Not merely Good Governance:

While good governance is of paramount importance for immediate delivery of goods & services for being in government, a leader must NOT hesitate, limit himself/herself to issues related to good governance ONLY.

While I fully endorse the broad vision laid by Narendra Modi on “Skill, Speed, Scale” for future of India to compete with likes of China & other developed world, he should now make forays into social issues, socio-religious fault-lines impacting/affecting Society/Country.

He represent a particular ideology, he must further spread it through his vision lined up in the light of this ideology. Strong Nationalism riding on culturing moorings of the nation must be elaborated further, defined in emerging social realities. Vision around re-positioning India among comity of nations in the light of BJP’s ideology must be explained/re-described. It is understandable, if new definition need to be kept away from old pompous clichés, but should be made more practical, understandable in present context.

Doing this will make good delivered through the good governance of present set of government would be stable beyond generations of future governments. Legacy of right type would be eventually prepared preventing existing success as one-off success wonder.

Splendor of the King & Grandeur of aam-admi

Suddenly in late 2012 some Intellectuals are worried about aam-admi. Inflation, unemployment and deteriorating Law and Order situation has made life miserable for this aam-admi. Corruption has just gotten bigger, mind boggling and leaving much larger holes in his pockets. But, hey wait, how come this man who had always made ‘matured’ and 'wise' choices election after elections, now landed in this bottomless pit? And again? 

Aam-admi’s wisdom was greatly applauded in 2004 and later in 2009.  UPA government was born with ‘stamp’ of approval from this aam-admi. It is very important to understand the UPA I to understand the characteristics of UPA II. And to understand the UPA I you need to understand the era of Rajiv and Indira Gandhi. 

For the beginners, UPA I government began with a cracker: “Bhaad Me gaya Sensex” (To be hell with Sensex). Most of the Foreign Investors got their message LOUD and CLEAR. There was NO ambiguity in the message.   

First casualty was the Disinvestment Ministry itself. Second important casualty was the reversal deregulation of Administrative Pricing Mechanism of petroleum products by NDA government in 2002. Even though that was not complete deregulation, but based on 3 committees: the Rangarajan Committee, the Chaturvedi Committee and finally the Kirit Parikh Committee recommendations it retained some restrictions and regulations. However, it was a major step forward in eliminating the colossal subsidies resulting in spiraling fiscal deficit.

Guess who was the Minister (Petroleum and Natural Gas) who presided over reversal of that deregulation step? You may not have guessed!! The only original leftist in Congress and ‘staunch loyalist’: Mani Shankar Iyer. 

PM Manmohan Singh on March 10th 2005 stated his government's emphasis on “Self-Reliance”. Take a pause. Doesn’t this phrase remind you of Indira Gandhi's lexicon? “Garibi Hatao” of 1971 was combined with this phrase.  In that statement Manmohan Singh had also expressed concerns on the increasing fiscal deficit, unemployment rate, Inflation and hold your breath “National Political Consensus” to deal with “National Fiscal Problem”.  What followed instead? NREGA and whooping Rupees 65,000 Crore farmer loan waiver. There was another mammoth subsidy went unnoticed through the years. And it was Rupee 1 Lakh crore subsidy to manufacturers of fertilizers. 

During these years, Infrastructure development took direct hit. Golden Quadrilateral project initiated by NDA government took major hit (3).  Railway Ministry was handed over to Lalu Prasad Yadav. Every year Manmohan Singh was seen thumping desks during Railway budget speeches seeing Lalu cracking a cheap joke spitting  'massaged’ data on Railway’s Financial Health. Does anyone now recall "Lalu Halts" in many parts of Bihar during UPA I regime?

 Add  the subject of Energy/Fuel to the UPA I paradigm of governance and you will get much better picture on shape of things to come.

Energy? Fuel? Sound familiar again in 2012?  I thought, we had left this word successfully behind in 2008 itself after epic Nuclear Deal. But, UPA I had far deeper insight into the problem related to energy and fuel than nodding and endorsing editorial boards. It knew that without coal, not enough fuel electricity/energy can be generated! :--)  Allotments of Coal mines were made at lightening speed to match the speed of electricity itself! By-product of this exercise was tonnes of 'cash' and 'inflated equity'! But off-course, it was Not 'intended' outcome! :--)

Though, in 2007 GDP growth rate touched 9% deriving the momentum generated from the policies of the previous government, the impact of adoption of slogans thrown up by UPA I beginning to show. For example, the Economic Survey of 2006-07 mentioned "slowing down of the growth of agriculture could be one of the main reasons for the growth in the unemployment rate”.

By 2007, 2008 some scams begin to surface. Inflation was not at comfortable level either. Naxals were capturing more and more territory under their red flag. Country had experienced 26/11 too.

Finally, UPA I closed its innings with cracker again -- Cash for Vote...


And in 2009 the wisdom of aam-admi 'prevailed' over his own empty stomach senses, the Singh was made the King....  This newly anointed King created history of new type with in-numerable ZEROs and his 'explanations' over each!! :--)

Post 2012 Singh will retire with his "Kingdom", and the real Queen is still globe trottring with impunity preaching more 'reforms' for aam-admi like "Right to Food", and the aam-admi is lining up in the queues in neighborhood Fare Price Shops for his quota of adulterated groceries and Kerosene...

 The same Aam-admi is again going to be assigned same task as was given in 2008/09 and earlier in 2004.  Would aam-admi make something out of a 42 year adolescent? Or would put his 'wisdom' to rest for a while and would choose a stellar performer from western border state? 


Billion dollar (non FDI ) question indeed! 

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(1) http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2004-07-15/india-business/27148343_1_oil-companies-pricing-policy-petroleum

(2) http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2005-03-10/news/27509314_1_high-growth-growth-rate-indian-economy

(3) http://www.financialexpress.com/news/golden-quadrilateral-at-snail-s-pace/236865/